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Superlongevity Without Overpopulation
that extended longevity will dramatically boost population
growth. The fact is, superlongevity in the developed nations
would have practically no global or local population impact.
The lack of global impact is a consequence of the small and
falling share of the global population accounted for by the
developed nations. No local population boom drama can real-
istically be expected because these countries are experiencing
very low, zero, or negative population growth:
The share of the global population accounted for by the
developed nations has fallen from 32 percent in 1950 to
20 percent currently and is projected to fall to 13 per-
cent in 2050. [2] If we look just at Europe, we see an even
more remarkable shrinkage: In 1950, Europe accounted for
22 percent of the global population. Currently it has fallen to
13 percent, and is projected to fall to 7 percent by 2050. [3]
To put this in perspective, consider that the population of
Africa at 749 million is now greater than that of Europe at
729 million, according to UN figures. Europe’s population
growth rate of just 0.03 per cent will ensure that it will rapidly
shrink relative to Africa and other developing areas.
In Eastern Europe, population is now shrinking at a rate of
0.2 percent. Between now and 2050, the population of the
more developed regions is expected to change little. Projections
show that by mid-century, the populations of 39 countries will
be smaller than today. Some examples: Japan and Germany
14 percent smaller; Italy and Hungary 25 percent smaller; and
the Russian Federation, Georgia and Ukraine between 28–40
percent smaller. [3]
For the United States (whose population grows faster than
Europe), the bottom line was summed in a presentation to the
President’s Council on Bioethics by S.J. Olshansky who “did
some basic calculations to demonstrate what would happen if
we achieved immortality today.” The bottom line is that if we
achieved immortality today, the growth rate of the population